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Turkey vs Italy prediction: teams form analysis, possible lineups on September 28, 2026

We expect at least a couple of goals
Benjamin Mcneil
Author:
Benjamin Mcneil, betting expert
Published:
Turkiye vs Italy match prediction on Sep 28, 2026
Math prediction 1 X 2
2.59 Linebet 27 Sep 15:02 2.66 -0.07 27 Sep 04:02 2.72 -0.07 25 Sep 20:00 2.81 -0.09 22 Sep 20:00 2.82 + 0.05 3.71 Linebet 25 Sep 08:00 3.54 + 0.12 22 Sep 20:00 3.44 + 0.08 2.66 Linebet 27 Sep 15:02 2.61 + 0.05 27 Sep 04:02 2.56 + 0.06 25 Sep 20:00 2.49 + 0.07 22 Sep 20:00 2.28 + 0.23
37% 26% 36%
25 TIPS
Tournament UEFA Nations League A
Venue Bursa Buyuksehir Belediye Stadyumu (Bursa)
Date & kick-off time

On September 28, 2026, the national teams of Turkey and Italy will face each other in the second round of League A of the UEFA Nations League.

Turkey vs Italy: team news and expert analysis

Turkey performed well at the last European Championship and earned promotion to the top tier of the Nations League. However, they collapsed at the World Cup in the summer: after just two rounds, defeats to Australia and Paraguay saw them eliminated early. Still, they ended their campaign on a high by "slamming the door" with a victory over the USA! They have now started with a home game against France. After Mbappe's goal, they could only respond with Cakir's sending-off.

Italy failed to qualify for a third consecutive World Cup: Norway left them with no chance in the group, while in the spring playoffs they comfortably beat Northern Ireland 2-0 before losing to Bosnia on penalties while down to ten men. Gattuso stepped down after that, and in June they defeated Luxembourg and Greece without a full-time coach in charge. Mancini returned to the post only in the autumn. His "second debut" against Belgium ended in disaster: conceding once in each half, his team lost 0-2 at home!

Montella's men scored an average of 1.5 goals per game and conceded 0.9. The Azzurri, meanwhile, scored 1.9 goals while allowing 1.2 on average.

Previous matches: Turkey vs Italy

The teams have met eleven times in total, with Italy winning eight of those encounters and three ending in draws.

Both teams need nothing less than a victory. Our pick is for the match to produce "over 2.5 total goals" (odds – 1.84).

Turkey vs Italy: key statistics and trends

  • Turkey have lost three of their last four matches
  • 30% of Turkey's matches finish with both teams scoring, and the average total goals per match is 2.4
  • Italy have won three of their last five matches
  • 40% of Italy's matches finish with both teams scoring, and the average total goals per match is 3.1

Turkey vs Italy: possible starting lineups

Turkey play in a 1-4-2-3-1 formation (possible lineup): Bayindir – Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Aydin – Ozcan, Yuksek – Kadioglu, Guler, Uzun – Yilmaz. Cakir was sent off in the previous match

Italy play in a 1-4-3-2-1 formation (possible lineup): Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Coppola, Calafiori – Barella, Romano, Tonali – Cambiaghi, Esposito – Kean

Place your bet on the upcoming match and follow the team's performance in the UEFA Nations League standings

Our Pick
Game Prediction Total over 2,5
1.84
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Benjamin Mcneil
Benjamin Mcneil
betting expert
He is an analyst in the world of football who doesn't mind adding to his budget with a lucky bet, something he has been doing for the last 10 years. I don't believe in luck, but I believe that the motivation of the opponents and their kit plays a big role, and any sensation is explainable. I prefer to play cautiously, because it is better to win 5 out of 5 bets at odds of 1.6-1.7 than to lose 2 out of 3 bets at odds of 2.2.
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Game Prediction Our Pick
Total over 2,5
1.84