Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jiri Lehecka prediction and betting tips – October 6, 2026
Tokyo, Japan
On October 6, the final of the tournament in Tokyo will take place, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jiri Lehecka battling for the title. Here is my betting pick for the upcoming clash.
Carlos Alcaraz
The Spaniard is enduring an inconsistent season, although he made a spectacular start by winning the Australian Open and the tournament in Doha before reaching the semifinals at Indian Wells. In April, Alcaraz suffered an injury and missed more than four months.
The player returned at the US Open, where he reached the quarterfinals before losing to American Ben Shelton in five sets. In Tokyo, the Spaniard is defending his title and began with a victory over American Alex Michelsen – 7:6, 4:6, 6:1, before defeating Italy’s Matteo Arnaldi – 7:6, 6:1. His match against Denis Shapovalov ended prematurely, with Alcaraz leading 7:6, 2:1, as his opponent retired. In the semifinals, he managed to beat fellow Spaniard Jaume Munar.
Alcaraz is currently the world No. 3, although he began the season at the top of the rankings.
Jiri Lehecka
The Czech tennis player is having far from the most impressive season, and more was certainly expected of him. Lehecka sits 19th in the world rankings, having dropped one position since the start of the year. His best performance came at the tournament in Miami, where he lost to Italy’s Jannik Sinner.
In Tokyo, the Czech began with a hard-fought victory over Belgium’s Zizou Bergs – 6:3, 6:7, 6:3, then defeated France’s Ugo Humbert – 5:7, 6:4, 6:4, before beating Paraguay’s Valentin Vallejo – 6:1, 6:1. Lehecka comfortably overcame Monaco’s Valentin Vacherot – 6:4, 6:2. The Czech now has a second opportunity this season to claim a title.
Head-to-head record
Alcaraz leads their head-to-head record 3:1, but their hard-court meetings are evenly split at 1:1.
Match prediction
Quite expectedly, Alcaraz is a clear favorite, although I believe he has yet to return to his best form. Lehecka can certainly put up serious resistance, and they may even go the distance over the maximum three sets. My pick for this final is a Lehecka win with a +4.5-game handicap.
