Introduction to WinRate Metric

When browsing our mathematical predictions, you will come across WinRate — the metric we have computed to assess the historical possibility of the bookmaker's odds.

WinRate often differs — sometimes sharply — from the implied probability.

This discrepancy raises questions from curious bettors: Is the bookmaker underestimating the team's chances? Or is the side with supposedly "high" odds a riskier pick than it first appears?

That's precisely where WinRate steps in. If the WinRate is higher than the probability, it means a potential value bet. If WinRate is lower than the probability, double-check if this bet is safe.

The Basics of Odds and Implied Probabilities

Before diving headlong into the concept of WinRate, it's vital to understand how odds and implied probabilities typically work in sports betting. When a bookmaker offers odds on a particular match outcome — such as a home win in a 1x2 market — those odds can be converted into a percentage chance of that outcome.

Decimal Odds

Let's use decimal odds for illustrative purposes because they're widely used across many regions. If a team is listed at odds of 2.00, those odds imply a 50% chance of winning.

Margin and Adjusted Probability

Of course, bookmakers include a margin to ensure a profit regardless of the match result. Thus, the odds might not translate precisely to 100% when you add up the probabilities of all possible outcomes in a match. But from a bettor's perspective, if you see odds of 2.00, you know the bookmaker is suggesting a roughly 50% likelihood for that event.

Example

Suppose the home team is expected to win at odds of 1.50. The implied probability is around 66.7%. Yet you might notice on our website that the WinRate for that same event is, for instance, 73%. How did we get that figure, and what does it mean?

The Concept Behind WinRate

WinRate is a metric we developed to address one fundamental question: How often does an expected outcome actually happen when the team is given odds similar to those in the current match?

In other words, we're not content with trusting the bookmaker's theoretical probability. Instead, we want to see if historical performance at similar odds corroborates or contradicts that probability.

Historical Performance vs. Theoretical Probability

At the core of WinRate is a direct comparison between:

• Bookmaker's implied probability at given odds
• Real-world occurrence of that event (team winning, both teams scoring, etc.) when teams historically faced similar odds

Why Compare Odds Against WinRate?

The idea is simple. Bookmakers, while highly skilled and data-driven, are not infallible. They also adjust odds based on the volume of bets they receive (so-called "liability management").

An Analogy

Think of it this way. Suppose your friend told you that a particular restaurant has a "60% chance" of being extraordinary because of a fancy marketing brochure. In that case, you might counter by saying you've surveyed 15 patrons who ate at that restaurant under similar circumstances, and 12 had a great experience. That's 80%, well above the "60%" your friend quoted. Who might you trust more?

Why WinRate Matters for Bettors

Spotting Potential Value

If the WinRate for an outcome (let's say 75%) is significantly higher than the bookmaker's implied probability (55%), there might be an edge.

Cross-Market Comparisons

WinRate isn't confined to the popular 1X2 market (Match Result). It can be applied to totals (over/under), both teams to score (BTTS), and even half-time results — providing your sample is large enough to calculate historical performance reliably.

Reducing Guesswork

Traditional stats might tell you a team "has won 8 of its last 10 games at home," but that doesn't necessarily reflect how they fare under specific betting odds.

Data Sourcing: Where Do We Get the Numbers?

Algorithmic Steps

1. Identify the Current Odds: For instance, the home team's odds are 1.51 from Bookmaker X.
2. Set a Range: We define a ±0.15 threshold around 1.51 (1.36 to 1.66).
3. Match Sampling: We pull the last 15 matches from that range.
4. Outcome Collection: We count how many times that team won in those matches.
5. Calculating WinRate: We divide the number of successful outcomes by the total in the sample and multiply by 100 to get a percentage.

Best Practices for Using WinRate

• Combine with other stats like injuries, form, and tactical matchups.
• Look at home vs. away performance for better insight.
• Understand sample size limitations.

Conclusion

Betting on football is a blend of art and science. WinRate provides a statistical sanity check against the bookmaker's implied probability, helping you make more informed decisions.