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Real Madrid vs Atletico prediction: teams form analysis, possible lineups on March 22, 2026

The derby promises to be spectacular
Benjamin Mcneil
Author:
Benjamin Mcneil, betting expert
Published: 20 Mar 2026, 14:41
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match prediction on Mar 22, 2026
Math prediction 1 X 2
1.98 3.9 3.71
49% 25% 26%
38 TIPS
Tournament LaLiga Spain
Date & kick-off time 22 mar 2026, 16:00

In the 29th round of the Spanish La Liga on March 22, 2026, a match will take place between Madrid's Real and Atletico. The visitors will once again try to disrupt their neighbor's plans.

Real Madrid vs Atletico: Team News and Expert Analysis

The giant from the Santiago Bernabeu certainly can't be satisfied with itself, especially after failing to win a single trophy in 2025. In January, following a Super Cup loss, Xabi Alonso, who had been in charge for half a year, was dismissed. His replacement, Arbeloa, debuted with a defeat in the Copa del Rey, and that too against Albacete. In the Champions League, they managed to beat Manchester City twice. However, in La Liga, after catching up with Barcelona at the end of winter, they lost first place due to setbacks against Osasuna and Getafe. But they beat both Celta and Elche convincingly.

Diego Simeone hasn't claimed a major trophy with his team for a long time. Last season, at least, they reclaimed third place in La Liga, but now Villarreal is challenging them for it once again. Only in the last round, after beating Getafe, did they pull ahead by a couple of points. In the Champions League, they settled everything at home against crisis-hit Tottenham with a 5-2 thrashing, so they could afford a one-goal loss in London. Most importantly, in the cup, after a difficult path past Barcelona (4-0 and 0-3), they reached the final!

The "Madrid" stars score an average of 2.14 goals per match, conceding only 0.86. Their neighbors are more modest in attack, netting 1.68 per game, but their defense is solid with just 0.89 goals conceded on average.

Previous Matches: Real Madrid vs Atletico

In the last four derbies, both clubs have won twice each.

Faith in Arbeloa's men is strong. However, they do have problems that their opponent will at least try to exploit. The recommended bet is "total over 2.5 goals" (odds – 1.60).

Real Madrid vs Atletico: Key Statistics and Trends

  • Real Madrid has won their last four matches.
  • 54% of Real's matches end with both teams scoring, and the average total goals per match is 3.0.
  • Atletico has won three out of their last four games.
  • 46% of Atletico's matches end with both teams scoring, and the average total goals per match is 2.57.

Real Madrid vs Atletico: Probable Starting Lineups

Real Madrid is expected to use a 1-4-5-1 formation (possible lineup): Lunin - Alvaro Carreras, Alaba, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold - Pitarch, Tchouameni, Guler, Valverde, Vinicius Junior - Mbappe. Militao, Rodrygo, Asensio, Mendy, Bellingham, and Ceballos will not play, and now Courtois is also out.

Atletico is likely to line up in a 1-3-3-2-2 formation (possible lineup): Musso - Lenglet, Gimenez, Pubill - Molina, Gonzalez, Vargas, Koke, Almada - Baena, Sorloth. Oblak and Barrios with Mendoza are sidelined due to injuries.

Place your bet on the upcoming match and follow the team's performance in the Spanish La Liga standings

Our Pick
Game Prediction Total over 2,5
1.6
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Benjamin Mcneil
Benjamin Mcneil
betting expert
He is an analyst in the world of football who doesn't mind adding to his budget with a lucky bet, something he has been doing for the last 10 years. I don't believe in luck, but I believe that the motivation of the opponents and their kit plays a big role, and any sensation is explainable. I prefer to play cautiously, because it is better to win 5 out of 5 bets at odds of 1.6-1.7 than to lose 2 out of 3 bets at odds of 2.2.
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Game Prediction Our Pick
Total over 2,5
1.6