Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Prediction and Betting Tips - July 5, 2026
Wimbledon is already in full swing, offering plenty of intriguing matchups. In the fourth round, Aryna Sabalenka will face Naomi Osaka. Here is my prediction for this encounter.
Aryna Sabalenka
The world number one is having a mixed season. She has won tournaments in Brisbane, Indian Wells, and Miami, but is yet to claim a major; at the Australian Open, she reached the final. The Belarusian did not impress on clay, failing to advance to the later stages of tournaments on this surface.
At Wimbledon, Sabalenka started with a win over Serbia’s Kostovic – 6:2, 6:3. The second round was more challenging against American Kessler – 6:1, 7:6. In her latest match, she defeated Latvia’s Ostapenko – 6:4, 6:4.
This major has not been the most successful for Sabalenka; her best result is reaching the semifinals, which she has done three times. So far, there is no sense that Sabalenka is dominating her opponents.
Naomi Osaka
The Japanese player is currently ranked 14th in the world, but she is widely known as a former world number one. She lost her top ranking and form due to maternity leave.
Osaka has not won any tournaments this season, but there are signs of a strong performance at Wimbledon, as she reached the final at the grass-court Bad Homburg event. There, Osaka retired in the second set against Czech Karolina Muchova due to injury.
So far at Wimbledon, Osaka has had no issues, defeating Frenchwoman Jacquemot – 6:1, 7:5, Russian Gasanova – 6:3, 6:2, and Australian Kasatkina – 6:1, 6:3. Reaching the fourth round is her best Wimbledon result to date.
Head-to-Head
In their career meetings, Sabalenka leads 3-1, with all three of her wins coming this season. The two have never played each other on grass before.
Prediction
We’re in for a marquee battle: the world number one versus a former top-ranked player. Both know what it takes to win Grand Slams, so experience is not lacking. Sabalenka is considered the favorite in this matchup, although Osaka is in good form and certainly capable of putting up a fight. A bet on over 20.5 games at odds of 1.64 looks promising.
